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US Elections Forecasting Project 2016

January 16, 2016

Follow: @leightonvw

The 2016 US Elections Forecasting Project, headed by Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Director of the Political Forecasting Unit and the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, will be updated regularly thought the Primary season and up to and including General Election Day, November 8, 2016.

Monday, January 18, 2016 (Saturday, January 16 in brackets)

Iowa caucuses, February 1, 2016, Democrats

Clinton v. Sanders only.

Political Forecasting Unit projection:

Clinton 61% (63%)

Sanders 39% (37%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast (based on state polls):

Chances of winning:

Clinton 65 % (66%)

Sanders 35% (34%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast (state and national polls, plus endorsements):

Clinton 81% (82%)

Sanders 19% (18%)

PredictIt implied probabilities:

Clinton 54% (52%)

Sanders 46% (48%)

Betfair implied probabilities:

Clinton 55.9% (59.4%)

Sanders 44.1% (40.6%)

Oddschecker implied probabilities:

Clinton 62.5% (62.5%)

Sanders 37.5% (37.5%)

Predictwise forecast

Clinton – 59% (61.5%)

Sanders – 41% (38.5%)

New Hampshire Primary, February 9, 2016 – Democrats

Clinton v. Sanders only

Political Forecasting Unit projection:

Clinton 32% (35%)

Sanders 68% (65%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast (based on state polls):

Chances of winning:

Clinton 29% (28%)

Sanders 71% (72%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast (state and national polls, plus endorsements):

Clinton 57% (57%)

Sanders 43% (43%)

PredictIt implied probabilities:

Clinton 29% (27%)

Sanders 71% (73%)

Betfair implied probabilities:

Clinton 36.6% (38.8%)

Sanders 63.4% (61.2%)

Oddschecker implied probabilities:

Clinton 33.5% (34.8%)

Sanders 66.5% (65.2%)

Predictwise forecast:

Clinton – 29% (37%)

Sanders – 71% (63%)

Iowa Caucuses, February 1, 2016 – Republicans

Cruz, Rubio, Trump only

Political Forecasting Unit projection:

Cruz 58% (57%)

Trump 34%  (34%)

Rubio 6% (7%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast (based on state polls):

Chances of winning:

Cruz 43% (44%)

Trump 42% (42%)

Rubio 8% (8%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast (state and national polls, plus endorsements):

Cruz 51% (51%)

Trump 28% (29%)

Rubio 13% (17%)

PredictIt implied probabilities:

Cruz 57% (54%)

Trump 40% (39%)

Rubio 4% (7%)

Betfair implied probabilities:

Cruz 64.5% (61.7%)

Trump 33.8% (32.5%)

Rubio 5.0% (5.8%)

Oddschecker implied probabilities:

Cruz 61.0% (62.3%)

Trump 33.4% (30.2%)

Rubio 5.6% (7.5%)

Predictwise forecast:

Cruz 62% (63%)

Trump 31% (33%)

Rubio 3% (4%)

New Hampshire Primary, February 9, 2016 – Republicans

Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Kasich, Bush only

Political Forecasting Unit projection:

Trump 57.5% (55.5%)

Rubio 15.4% (16.1%)

Cruz 9.9% (10.1%)

Christie 7.4% (7.2%)

Kasich 5.4% (6.8%)

Bush 4.4% (4.3%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast (based on state polls):

Chances of winning:

Trump 56% (57%)

Rubio 12% (12%)

Cruz 9% (9%)

Christie 7% (7%)

Kasich 7% (8%)

Bush 5% (5%)

FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast (state and national polls, plus endorsements):

Trump 39% (39%)

Rubio 19% (19%)

Cruz 14% (14%)

Christie 7% (7%)

Kasich 10% (10%)

Bush 8% (9%)

PredictIt implied probabilities:

Trump 69% (65%)

Rubio 11% (12%)

Cruz 9% (9%)

Christie 3% (5%)

Kasich 5% (5%)

Bush 3% (4%)

Betfair implied probabilities:

Trump 59.5% (53.1%)

Rubio 15.1% (16.0%)

Cruz 9.7% (10.1%)

Christie 6.9% (7.9%)

Kasich 4.5% (8.3%)

Bush 4.3% (4.6%)

Oddschecker implied probabilities:

Trump 55.6% (57.6%)

Rubio 17.5% (15.5%)

Cruz 9.7% (8.5%)

Christie 8.7% (10.3%)

Kasich 5.2% (4.7%)

Bush 3.3% (3.4%)

Predictwise forecast:

Trump 59% (51%)

Rubio 17% (13%)

Cruz 9% (11%)

Christie 6% (7%)

Kasich 3% (5%)

Bush 6% (3%)

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