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• Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams

  

• Recent Posts

  • The Expected Value Paradox – in a nutshell.
  • Solutions: Game Theory – Nash Equilibrium – in a nutshell.
  • Solution: Kelly Criterion – in a nutshell.
  • The Newton-Pepys Problem – in a nutshell.
  • Solution: Deadly Doors Problem – in a nutshell.

• Categories

  Categories Select Category Astronomy Bayes Betting Betting markets Betting research Debates Economics Economics and Finance Economics of gambling Efficiency of Markets Election Forecasting Gambling game theory Guide Notes Mathematics Nutshells paradoxes Philosophy Photography Political forecasting Politics Prediction Markets Probability Puzzles Science Statistics Theology Truth and Justice Uncategorized

• A+ links

  • FiveThirtyEight

• All Conversation articles

  • Can we solve the mystery of Shakespeare's 'lost plays'?
  • Election pollsters put their methods to the test – and turnout is the key.
  • How looking at bad polls can show Labour how to win the next election.
  • Jeb Bush dives into the presidential race.
  • Madness of crowds, polls and experts confirmed by Trump victory.
  • Report card: How well did UK election forecasters perform in 2017?
  • Same-sex ruling no surprise to Supreme Court gamblers.
  • The Day Zero was Banned from Roulette
  • The Grand National Steeplechase
  • The Nobel Prize Prediction Industry
  • The smart money is backing Donald Trump
  • US presidential elections: why a Democrat is now favourite to win in 2020.
  • What happened to missing aircraft MH370?
  • Why the polls called UK election 2015 wrong.

• All Select Networks

  • All Select Stories
  • LinkedIn
  • My Twitter page.
  • Select Networks
  • Twitter – LVW

• Audio Files

  • Is zero an even number?
  • LVW Interviewed by the BBC's Evan Davis
  • LVW Interviewed on BBC Radio 4 Today

• Betting

  • Betting exchange analysis

• Betting Taxation

  • A Policy Response to the E-Commerce Revolution: The Case of Betting Taxation in the UK
  • Betting Taxation
  • GPT Introduced, 2001

• Blogroll

  • Election pollsters put their models to the test – and turnout is the key.

• Book Chapters

  • Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets
  • Routledge International Handbook of Internet Gambling
  • The Taxation of Gambling Machines: A Theoretical Perspective

• Books

  • Betting to Win: A Professional Guide to Profitable Betting
  • How to Win at Online Poker
  • Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets
  • Oxford Book of Carols
  • Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling
  • Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications
  • Select Stories
  • The Economics of Gambling
  • The Economics of Gambling and National Lotteries

• Centres

  • Betting Research Unit
  • Political Forecasting Unit

• Charity

  • Macmillan Cancer Support
  • The John Eastwood Hospice

• Choice and Reason

  • Select Economics

• Competition Commission

  • Expert Witness Evidence to Competition Commission
  • Sportech plc/Vernons Inquiry

• Editorial

  • Economic Issues
  • Economica
  • International Gambling Studies
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • Southern Economic Journal
  • The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
  • The Journal of Prediction Markets

• Employment

  • Nottingham Business School

• Evidence to UK Parliament

  • Memorandum to House of Commons/House of Lords Select Committee
  • Oral Evidence to Select Committee of UK Parliament

• Gambling Commission

  • DCMS Memo (N.B. Section 78)
  • Secondary Prevalence Survey

• HM Revenue and Customs

  • Betting Taxation
  • GPT Introduced, 2001
  • Modernisation of Gambling

• Memberships and Fellowships

  • GLG Research Council
  • International Institute of Forecasters
  • Royal Shakespeare Company
  • Royal Statistical Society

• My Adobe Voice

  • Is zero an even number?

• National Audit Office

  • National Audit Office Report on Gambling Duties

• Other Publications

  • eCogra Report
  • NTU
  • Polling Report
  • Significance
  • Winning Poker 1
  • Winning Poker 2
  • Winning Poker 3

• Papers Online

  • A Policy Response to the E-Commerce Revolution: The Case of Betting Taxation in the UK
  • Implications of Betting Tax Reforms for the Taxation of Equities
  • Quarbs and Efficiency in Spread Betting Markets: Can You Beat the Book?

• Personal

  • Audrey Coss – memorial
  • Golf
  • Learn Mandarin Chinese
  • Roko Health Club
  • Select Stories
  • Twitter – LVW
  • West Bridgford Tennis Club
  • Wilford Burns Night – LIVE Conclusion
  • Wilford Burns Night – Part 1
  • Wilford Burns Night – Part 2
  • Wilford Church

• Political Forecasting

  • Channel 4 News
  • Poll of Polls
  • Probability in Action

• Press and media

  • ABC News
  • BBC News
  • BBC Radio 4 Today
  • Business Week
  • Business Week 2
  • Business Week 3
  • CBS News
  • Daily Telegraph
  • Director
  • Financial Times
  • Gambling Online Magazine
  • Gambling Online Magazine 1
  • Independent Investor
  • ITN
  • MSNBC
  • Poker Player
  • Racing Post
  • Racing Post 1
  • Sunday Telegraph 1
  • Sunday Telegraph 1
  • The Economist
  • The Globe and Mail
  • The Guardian
  • The Independent
  • The Independent
  • The Mail
  • The Times
  • Wales On Sunday

• Probability

  • Select Economics

• Profile

  • LinkedIn
  • News Archive
  • ResearchGate
  • Twitter
  • Twitter – LVW
  • YouTube
  • YouTube – NBS

• Published Papers

  • Publications Listed on Google Scholar
  • Publications Listed on IDEAS
  • Publications listed on NBS website
  • ResearchGate

• Radio Interviews

  • BBC Radio 4 Today
  • LVW Interviewed by the BBC's Evan Davis

• Select Abstracts

  • All Select Abstracts
  • Efficiency of Betting Markets
  • Prediction Markets
  • The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
  • The Journal of Prediction Markets

• Select Books

  • All Select Books
  • Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets
  • Prediction Markets

• Select Broadcasts

  • All Select Broadcasts
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis on Google Video
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis on YouTube
  • Financial Markets
  • Financial Theory
  • Prediction Markets Audio
  • Prediction Markets on Google Video
  • Prediction Markets on Videosurf
  • Prediction Markets on YouTube

• Select Clippings

  • All Select Clippings
  • Online Gambling in Europe
  • Punters v Pollsters (Economist)

• Select Pages

  • All Select Pages

• Select Papers

  • All Select Papers
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Prediction Markets

• Select Presentations

  • All Select Presentations
  • An Introduction to Prediction Markets
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis

• Select Social Media

  • All Select Social Media

• Select Stories

  • Bertie's Big Idea
  • Select Stories
  • Sure
  • The Man Who Stole Seeds from a Pomegranate
  • The Problem with Teddy
  • The Tenth Hole
  • The Threat

• Select Websites

  • All Select Websites

• Select Wiki

  • All Select Wiki

• Selected Talks

  • London Prediction Market Conference
  • Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications

• Short stories

  • Select Stories

• Twitter

  • Twitter – LVW
  • Twitter – Select Clippings
  • Twitter – Select Economics

• Useful Links

  • Betting Research Unit
  • LinkedIn Betting Research Group
  • LinkedIn Prediction Markets Group
  • LinkedInPoliticalForecasting
  • Money, Finance and Risk Group Homepage
  • Nottingham Business School
  • Political Forecasting Unit
  • Select Abstracts
  • Select Books
  • Select Broadcasts
  • Select Clippings
  • Select Pages
  • Select Papers
  • Select Presentations
  • Select Research
  • Select Social Media
  • Select Websites
  • Select Wiki

• Various Blogs

  • Poll of Polls

• XYZ

  • Stiglitz on the Economic Crisis
  • The Bet that Blew Up Wall Street

• Flickr Photos

  

  More Photos