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• Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams

  

• Recent Posts

  • In the wrong hands, vaccination statistics can prove deadly. Simpson’s Paradox shows why.
  • When intuition fails, how to use probability, choice, and reason to find the real answers.
  • How to spot a faker!
  • How to distinguish random sequences from contrived sequences.
  • The Problem with Teddy – A Short Story

• Categories

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• A+ links

  • FiveThirtyEight

• All Conversation articles

  • Can we solve the mystery of Shakespeare's 'lost plays'?
  • Election pollsters put their methods to the test – and turnout is the key.
  • How looking at bad polls can show Labour how to win the next election.
  • Jeb Bush dives into the presidential race.
  • Madness of crowds, polls and experts confirmed by Trump victory.
  • Report card: How well did UK election forecasters perform in 2017?
  • Same-sex ruling no surprise to Supreme Court gamblers.
  • Strictly Come Dancing: The luck of the draw matters in talent shows.
  • The Day Zero was Banned from Roulette
  • The Grand National Steeplechase
  • The Nobel Prize Prediction Industry
  • The smart money is backing Donald Trump
  • US presidential elections: why a Democrat is now favourite to win in 2020.
  • What happened to missing aircraft MH370?
  • Why the polls called UK election 2015 wrong.

• All Select Networks

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  • Twitter – LVW

• Audio Files

  • Is zero an even number?
  • LVW Interviewed by the BBC's Evan Davis
  • LVW Interviewed on BBC Radio 4 Today

• Betting

  • Betting exchange analysis

• Betting Taxation

  • A Policy Response to the E-Commerce Revolution: The Case of Betting Taxation in the UK
  • Betting Taxation
  • GPT Introduced, 2001

• Blogroll

  • Election pollsters put their models to the test – and turnout is the key.

• Book Chapters

  • Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets
  • Routledge International Handbook of Internet Gambling
  • The Taxation of Gambling Machines: A Theoretical Perspective

• Books

  • Betting to Win: A Professional Guide to Profitable Betting
  • How to Win at Online Poker
  • Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets
  • Oxford Book of Carols
  • Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling
  • Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications
  • Select Stories
  • The Economics of Gambling
  • The Economics of Gambling and National Lotteries

• Centres

  • Betting Research Unit
  • Centre for the Public Understanding of Probability
  • Political Forecasting Unit

• Charity

  • Macmillan Cancer Support
  • The John Eastwood Hospice

• Choice and Reason

  • Select Economics

• Competition Commission

  • Expert Witness Evidence to Competition Commission
  • Sportech plc/Vernons Inquiry

• Editorial

  • Economic Issues
  • Economica
  • International Gambling Studies
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • Southern Economic Journal
  • The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
  • The Journal of Prediction Markets

• Employment

  • Nottingham Business School

• Evidence to UK Parliament

  • Memorandum to House of Commons/House of Lords Select Committee
  • Oral Evidence to Select Committee of UK Parliament

• Gambling Commission

  • DCMS Memo (N.B. Section 78)
  • Secondary Prevalence Survey

• HM Revenue and Customs

  • Betting Taxation
  • GPT Introduced, 2001
  • Modernisation of Gambling

• Memberships and Fellowships

  • GLG Research Council
  • International Institute of Forecasters
  • Royal Shakespeare Company
  • Royal Statistical Society

• My Adobe Voice

  • Is zero an even number?

• National Audit Office

  • National Audit Office Report on Gambling Duties

• Other Publications

  • eCogra Report
  • NTU
  • Polling Report
  • Significance
  • Winning Poker 1
  • Winning Poker 2
  • Winning Poker 3

• Papers Online

  • A Policy Response to the E-Commerce Revolution: The Case of Betting Taxation in the UK
  • Implications of Betting Tax Reforms for the Taxation of Equities
  • Quarbs and Efficiency in Spread Betting Markets: Can You Beat the Book?

• Personal

  • Audrey Coss – memorial
  • Golf
  • Learn Mandarin Chinese
  • Roko Health Club
  • Select Stories
  • Twitter – LVW
  • West Bridgford Tennis Club
  • Wilford Burns Night – LIVE Conclusion
  • Wilford Burns Night – Part 1
  • Wilford Burns Night – Part 2
  • Wilford Church

• Political Forecasting

  • Channel 4 News
  • Poll of Polls
  • Probability in Action

• Press and media

  • ABC News
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  • Business Week
  • Business Week 2
  • Business Week 3
  • CBS News
  • Daily Telegraph
  • Director
  • Financial Times
  • Gambling Online Magazine
  • Gambling Online Magazine 1
  • Independent Investor
  • ITN
  • MSNBC
  • Poker Player
  • Racing Post
  • Racing Post 1
  • Sunday Telegraph 1
  • Sunday Telegraph 1
  • The Economist
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  • The Guardian
  • The Independent
  • The Independent
  • The Mail
  • The Times
  • Wales On Sunday

• Probability

  • Select Economics

• Profile

  • LinkedIn
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  • Twitter
  • Twitter – LVW
  • YouTube
  • YouTube – NBS

• Published Papers

  • Publications Listed on Google Scholar
  • Publications Listed on IDEAS
  • Publications listed on NBS website
  • ResearchGate

• Radio Interviews

  • BBC Radio 4 Today
  • LVW Interviewed by the BBC's Evan Davis

• Select Abstracts

  • All Select Abstracts
  • Efficiency of Betting Markets
  • Prediction Markets
  • The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
  • The Journal of Prediction Markets

• Select Books

  • All Select Books
  • Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets
  • Prediction Markets

• Select Broadcasts

  • All Select Broadcasts
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis on Google Video
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis on YouTube
  • Financial Markets
  • Financial Theory
  • Prediction Markets Audio
  • Prediction Markets on Google Video
  • Prediction Markets on Videosurf
  • Prediction Markets on YouTube

• Select Clippings

  • All Select Clippings
  • Online Gambling in Europe
  • Punters v Pollsters (Economist)

• Select Pages

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• Select Papers

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  • Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Prediction Markets

• Select Presentations

  • All Select Presentations
  • An Introduction to Prediction Markets
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis

• Select Social Media

  • All Select Social Media

• Select Stories

  • Bertie's Big Idea
  • Select Stories
  • Sure
  • The Man Who Stole Seeds from a Pomegranate
  • The Problem with Teddy
  • The Tenth Hole
  • The Threat

• Select Websites

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• Select Wiki

  • All Select Wiki

• Selected Talks

  • London Prediction Market Conference
  • Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications

• Short stories

  • Select Stories

• Twitter

  • Twitter – LVW
  • Twitter – Select Clippings
  • Twitter – Select Economics

• Useful Links

  • Betting Research Unit
  • LinkedIn Betting Research Group
  • LinkedIn Prediction Markets Group
  • LinkedInPoliticalForecasting
  • Money, Finance and Risk Group Homepage
  • Nottingham Business School
  • Political Forecasting Unit
  • Select Abstracts
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  • Select Broadcasts
  • Select Clippings
  • Select Pages
  • Select Papers
  • Select Presentations
  • Select Research
  • Select Social Media
  • Select Websites
  • Select Wiki

• Various Blogs

  • Poll of Polls

• XYZ

  • Stiglitz on the Economic Crisis
  • The Bet that Blew Up Wall Street

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