Posts tagged ‘cleverness of crowds’

• Prof. Leighton Vaughan Williams

  

• Recent Posts

  • In the wrong hands, vaccination statistics can prove deadly. Simpson’s Paradox shows why.
  • When intuition fails, how to use probability, choice, and reason to find the real answers.
  • How to distinguish random sequences from contrived sequences.
  • The Problem with Teddy – A Short Story
  • Bertie’s Big Idea – A Short Story

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  • Can we solve the mystery of Shakespeare's 'lost plays'?
  • Election pollsters put their methods to the test – and turnout is the key.
  • How looking at bad polls can show Labour how to win the next election.
  • Jeb Bush dives into the presidential race.
  • Madness of crowds, polls and experts confirmed by Trump victory.
  • Report card: How well did UK election forecasters perform in 2017?
  • Same-sex ruling no surprise to Supreme Court gamblers.
  • Strictly Come Dancing: The luck of the draw matters in talent shows.
  • The Day Zero was Banned from Roulette
  • The Grand National Steeplechase
  • The Nobel Prize Prediction Industry
  • The smart money is backing Donald Trump
  • US presidential elections: why a Democrat is now favourite to win in 2020.
  • What happened to missing aircraft MH370?
  • Why the polls called UK election 2015 wrong.

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  • Is zero an even number?
  • LVW Interviewed by the BBC's Evan Davis
  • LVW Interviewed on BBC Radio 4 Today

• Betting

  • Betting exchange analysis

• Betting Taxation

  • A Policy Response to the E-Commerce Revolution: The Case of Betting Taxation in the UK
  • Betting Taxation
  • GPT Introduced, 2001

• Blogroll

  • Election pollsters put their models to the test – and turnout is the key.

• Book Chapters

  • Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets
  • Routledge International Handbook of Internet Gambling
  • The Taxation of Gambling Machines: A Theoretical Perspective

• Books

  • Betting to Win: A Professional Guide to Profitable Betting
  • How to Win at Online Poker
  • Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets
  • Oxford Book of Carols
  • Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling
  • Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications
  • Select Stories
  • The Economics of Gambling
  • The Economics of Gambling and National Lotteries

• Centres

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• Choice and Reason

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• Evidence to UK Parliament

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  • Secondary Prevalence Survey

• HM Revenue and Customs

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  • GPT Introduced, 2001
  • Modernisation of Gambling

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  • Is zero an even number?

• National Audit Office

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• Other Publications

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• Papers Online

  • A Policy Response to the E-Commerce Revolution: The Case of Betting Taxation in the UK
  • Implications of Betting Tax Reforms for the Taxation of Equities
  • Quarbs and Efficiency in Spread Betting Markets: Can You Beat the Book?

• Personal

  • Audrey Coss – memorial
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  • Wilford Burns Night – LIVE Conclusion
  • Wilford Burns Night – Part 1
  • Wilford Burns Night – Part 2
  • Wilford Church

• Political Forecasting

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• Radio Interviews

  • BBC Radio 4 Today
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• Select Abstracts

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  • Efficiency of Betting Markets
  • Prediction Markets
  • The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
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• Select Books

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  • Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets
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• Select Broadcasts

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  • Efficient Market Hypothesis on Google Video
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  • Financial Markets
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  • Prediction Markets Audio
  • Prediction Markets on Google Video
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  • Online Gambling in Europe
  • Punters v Pollsters (Economist)

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  • Efficient Market Hypothesis
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  • An Introduction to Prediction Markets
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis

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• Select Stories

  • Bertie's Big Idea
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  • Sure
  • The Man Who Stole Seeds from a Pomegranate
  • The Problem with Teddy
  • The Tenth Hole
  • The Threat

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• Selected Talks

  • London Prediction Market Conference
  • Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications

• Short stories

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• Twitter

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• Useful Links

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• Various Blogs

  • Poll of Polls

• XYZ

  • Stiglitz on the Economic Crisis
  • The Bet that Blew Up Wall Street

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