William Shakespeare

The Timeless Bayesian

When Should We Trust a Loved One? Exploring a Shakespearean Tragedy

OTHELLO: THE BACKGROUND

Created by William Shakespeare, ‘Othello’ is a play centred around four main characters: Othello, a general in the Venetian army; his devoted wife, Desdemona; his trusted lieutenant, Cassio; and his manipulative ensign, Iago. Iago’s plan forms the central conflict of the play. Driven by jealousy and a large helping of evil, Iago seeks to convince Othello that Desdemona is conducting a secret affair with Cassio. His strategy hinges on a treasured keepsake, a precious handkerchief which Desdemona received as a gift from Othello. Iago conspires successfully to plant this keepsake in Cassio’s lodgings so that Othello will later find it.

UNDERSTANDING OTHELLO’S MINDSET

Othello’s reaction to this discovery can potentially take different paths, depending on his character and mindset. If Othello refuses to entertain any possibility that Desdemona is being unfaithful to him, then no amount of evidence could ever change that belief.

On the other hand, Othello might accept that there is a possibility, however small, that Desdemona is being unfaithful to him. This would mean that there might be some level of evidence, however overwhelming it may need to be, that could undermine his faith in Desdemona’s loyalty.

There is, however, another path that Othello could take, which is to evaluate the circumstances objectively and analytically, weighing the evidence. But this balanced approach also has its pitfalls. A very simple starting assumption that he could make would be to assume that the likelihood of her guilt is equal to the likelihood of her innocence. That would mean assigning an implicit 50% chance that Desdemona had been unfaithful. This is known as the ‘Prior Indifference Fallacy’. If the prior probability is 50%, this needs to be established by a process better than simply assuming that because there are two possibilities (guilty or innocent), we can ascribe automatic equal weight to each. If Othello falls into this trap, any evidence against Desdemona starts to become very damning.

THE LOGICAL CONTRADICTION APPROACH

An alternative approach would be to seek evidence that directly contradicts the hypothesis of Desdemona’s guilt. If Othello could find proof that logically undermines the idea of her infidelity, he would have a solid base to stand on. However, there is no such clear-cut evidence, leading Othello deeper into a mindset of anger and suspicion.

BAYES’ THEOREM TO THE RESCUE

Othello might seek a strategy that allows him to combine his subjective belief with the new evidence to form a rational judgement. This is where Bayes’ theorem comes in. Bayes’ theorem allows, as we have seen in previous chapters, for the updating of probabilities based on observed evidence. The theorem can be expressed in the following formula:

Updated probability = ab/[ab + c (1 − a)]

In this formula, a is the prior probability, representing the likelihood that a hypothesis is true before encountering new evidence. b is the conditional probability, describing the likelihood of observing the new evidence if the hypothesis is true. And finally, c is the probability of observing the new evidence if the hypothesis is false. In this case, the evidence is the keepsake in Cassio’s lodgings, and the hypothesis is that Desdemona is being unfaithful to Othello.

APPLYING BAYES’ THEOREM TO OTHELLO’S DILEMMA

Now, before he discovers the keepsake (new evidence), suppose Othello perceives a 4% chance of Desdemona’s infidelity (a = 0.04). This represents his prior belief, based on his understanding of Desdemona’s character and their relationship. Of course, he is not literally assigning percentages, but he is doing so implicitly, and here we are simply making these explicit to show what might be happening within a Bayesian framework.

Next, consider the probability of finding the keepsake in Cassio’s room if Desdemona is indeed having an affair. Let’s assume that Othello considers there is a 50% chance of this being the case (b = 0.5).

Finally, what is the chance of finding the keepsake in Cassio’s room if Desdemona is innocent? This would in Othello’s mind require an unlikely series of events, such as the handkerchief being stolen or misplaced, and then ending up in Cassio’s possession. Let’s say he assigns this a low probability of just 5% (c = 0.05).

BAYESIAN PROBABILITIES: WEIGHING THE EVIDENCE

Feeding these values into Bayes’ equation, we can calculate the updated (or posterior) probability of Desdemona’s guilt in Othello’s eyes, given the discovery of the keepsake. The resulting probability comes out to be 0.294 or 29.4%. This suggests that, after considering the new evidence, Othello might reasonably believe that there is nearly a 30% chance that Desdemona is being unfaithful.

IAGO’S MANIPULATION OF PROBABILITIES

This 30% likelihood might not be high enough for Iago’s deceitful purposes. To enhance his plot, Iago needs to convince Othello to revise his estimate of c downwards, arguing that the keepsake’s presence in Cassio’s room is a near-certain indication of guilt. If Othello lowers his estimate of c from 0.05 to 0.01, the revised Bayesian probability shoots up to 67.6%. This change dramatically amplifies the perceived impact of the evidence, making Desdemona’s guilt appear significantly more probable.

DESDEMONA’S DEFENCE STRATEGY

On the other hand, Desdemona’s strategy for defending herself could be to challenge Othello’s assumption about b. She could argue that it would be illogical for her to risk the discovery of the keepsake if she were truly having an affair with Cassio. By reducing Othello’s estimate of b, she can turn the tables and make the presence of the keepsake testimony to her innocence rather than guilt.

CONCLUSION: THE TIMELESS BAYESIAN

Shakespeare’s ‘Othello’ was written about a century before Thomas Bayes was born. Yet the complex interplay of trust, deception, and evidence in the tragedy presents a classic case study in Bayesian reasoning.

Shakespeare was inherently Bayesian in his thinking. The tragedy of the play is that Othello was not!