Should We Accept Pascal’s Wager?

Introducing the Guardian Principle

A version of this article appears in TWISTED LOGIC: Puzzles, Paradoxes, and Big Questions. By Leighton Vaughan Williams. Chapman & Hall/CRC Press. 2024.

THE ORIGINS OF PASCAL’S WAGER

To understand the significance of Pascal’s Wager in decision-making processes, we must first trace its roots. Blaise Pascal is known for his immense contributions to mathematics and probability theory. One of his notable contributions to philosophy and decision theory, however, was his articulation of what has come to be known as Pascal’s Wager.

PASCAL’S WAGER: THE CRUX OF THE ARGUMENT

The wager posed by Pascal is simple yet profound. It can be paraphrased as follows: If God exists and you wager otherwise, the repercussions can be enormous. On the contrary, if God does not exist and you wager that he does, the implications are trivial in relative terms. Essentially, believing in God could lead to infinite rewards (eternal life in heaven), while the downside if he does not is comparatively inconsequential. Thus, Pascal urges you always to lean to the side of believing in God.

ADDRESSING THE ‘MANY GODS’ OBJECTION

The argument often raised against Pascal’s Wager is the ‘many gods’ objection. Detractors argue that numerous characterisations of God are conceivable, including those that punish believers. However, this counterpoint presumes that all representations of a god are equally plausible, which is an assumption that may not hold.

For instance, the existence of a deity described by a major established religion with millions or even billions of adherents and millennia of theological development and intellectual underpinning could be perceived as vastly more plausible than a fledgling religion with relatively few adherents or consistent theology.

THE ROLE OF HUMAN BIASES AND FUTURE REWARDS

The ability to appreciate uncertainty and the value of future rewards too often gets overshadowed by human biases. Humans are predisposed to discount the future, focusing on immediate rewards and overlooking long-term consequences. This cognitive bias makes people prone to underestimate future risks and rewards. Pascal’s Wager prompts us to consider future implications more seriously, offering a framework to factor in future gains or losses in decision-making.

PASCAL’S WAGER IN CONTEMPORARY CONTEXT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND NOAH’S LAW

The relevance of the thinking behind Pascal’s Wager isn’t confined to theological considerations. A parallel can be drawn, for example, between Pascal’s Wager and the urgency to act against climate change. Even if there were only a slim chance of catastrophic climate disaster, the consequences of inaction, considering the potential existential harm, would be too high to ignore.

This approach to climate change action has been dubbed ‘Noah’s Law’. It reflects the sentiment of Pascal’s Wager: if there’s a chance an ark may be essential for survival, it’s prudent to start building it now, regardless of how sunny the day might seem.

THE GUARDIAN PRINCIPLE

Building upon these concepts, I propose the introduction of a new ethical and operational guideline, which I call the ‘Guardian Principle’. This principle extends the foundational ideas of Noah’s Law and Pascal’s Wager into a broader, more encompassing approach. It advocates for a stance of proactive stewardship over our planet and society, emphasising the importance of pre-emptive action in the face of potential existential threats, not limited to climate change but extending to all manner of such risks.

The Guardian Principle calls for an ethos of precaution and responsibility, urging humanity to act as guardians of its own future and the future of our shared environment. It suggests that in situations of significant uncertainty but potentially devastating outcomes, we should err on the side of caution and engage in preventative measures against a wide array of existential risks. In this way, we fulfil a collective duty to safeguard the well-being of current and future generations against all forms of irreversible harm.

By integrating the Guardian Principle into our global ethos, we expand the narrative from merely avoiding disaster to actively cultivating a safe, sustainable future. It’s a call to not only build arks against impending floods but to seek to prevent the floods themselves, and to act more broadly as vigilant guardians against potential threats. It encourages us not just to react but to anticipate, mitigate, and ideally avert existential risks through foresight, innovation, and collective action.

In this light, the Guardian Principle does not just complement the logic behind Pascal’s Wager and Noah’s Law; it amplifies it. It reinforces the argument that inaction in the face of existential uncertainty is not an option. Instead, we are urged to embrace a more vigilant, proactive approach, turning existential anxiety into a catalyst for holistic and forward-thinking action. In this way, it is a call for a shift in perspective – from reactive measures to a stance that actively seeks to prevent, mitigate, and anticipate risks before they manifest. It’s about building a legacy of sustainability, resilience, and foresight. It is a call to action that resonates with Pascal’s Wager.

PASCAL’S MUGGING: A MODERN SPIN

A modern spin on Pascal’s Wager, Pascal’s Mugging, presents a scenario where a stranger promises a life-changing return on a relatively small sum, or to wield an existentially negative impact if they don’t receive this sum. Even if the chance of the claim being true is infinitesimal, it might seem rational to hand over the sum, such is the scale of the reward or consequence compared to the outlay. It is a dilemma that underscores the need for a pragmatic balance between scepticism and action in the face of uncertainty.

CONCLUSION: PASCAL’S LIGHTHOUSE

Pascal’s Wager has assumed a new critical relevance in our times. With the stakes being higher than ever in terms of global existential risks, the urgency to revisit and appreciate the wager’s lessons has heightened.
While it might seem counterintuitive to expend resources and energy to avert what may be perceived by at least some as small risks, Pascal’s Wager prompts us to think otherwise. As the wager illuminates, the potential stakes of inaction—be it eternal damnation in a theological context or irreversible climate disaster in a worldly sense—may far outweigh the cost of preventive measures. As we steer through a world beset with systemic risks and uncertainties, Pascal’s Wager, and the Guardian Principle it inspires, can serve as a lighthouse, guiding us away from the rocks and towards prudence, long-term thinking, and existential risk management.