Harris v Trump: The First Presidential Debate

The first US presidential debate of this latest election cycle proved to be a high-stakes battle that may have significantly altered the landscape of the race. From the moment Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, confidently approached Donald Trump and extended her hand, the dynamics of the evening began to shift dramatically. The betting markets, which initially favoured Trump, soon started to move in Harris’s direction. But it wasn’t until Trump made the unsupported claim that immigrants in Ohio were “eating dogs and cats” that the betting markets saw a full crossover, favouring Harris as the likely winner of November’s election.

Harris Takes Control

Harris knew a lot was riding on this debate. With a tightening race and her momentum stalling in the days leading up to the event, she needed to make a strong impression on the many Americans who still felt they didn’t know her well. Presidential debates are known for providing a unique platform for relatively less exposed candidates to boost their visibility, and Harris seized this opportunity with a well-executed strategy.

In her prosecutorial style, Harris managed to control the debate’s tempo from the start, putting Trump on the defensive. Her pointed questions and direct eye contact were reminiscent of her days as a prosecutor. Early on, she achieved a key objective: getting under Trump’s skin. By highlighting his dwindling rally attendance and suggesting his speeches had become dull and boring, she struck a nerve. From that moment on, Trump struggled to stay focused, frequently veering off into bizarre claims and tangents.

Trump’s Performance: Unhinged and Unstable?

Trump’s performance quickly turned chaotic. His outlandish statements—such as the claim about immigrants eating pets in Ohio and his unsupported assertions about post-birth killings in Democratic states—only served to further unravel his argument. Each time Harris poked him, he took the bait, spiralling deeper into his grievances about the 2020 election and other well-worn talking points. For viewers at home, the contrast was stark: a calm and composed Harris against a visibly agitated Trump.

Even Trump’s attempt to pivot to his foreign policy record backfired. Harris pointedly mocked his admiration for Vladimir Putin and highlighted the potential consequences of a Trump presidency for Ukraine and Eastern Europe. When Trump refused to clearly state his position on Ukraine winning the war, it only seemed to add to a general sense that he was on shaky ground.

The Betting Markets Shift Decisively

The impact of the debate on the betting markets was immediate and decisive. As Trump continued to dig himself into a hole with every rambling answer, Harris’s position strengthened. By the halfway point of the debate, the markets were giving her a 97% chance of being declared the winner in post-debate polling. Her dominant hold only solidified further as the debate moved on to its final conclusion, leaving her as the clear election favourite going forward.

A Second Debate?

Now, speculation turns to whether there will be a second debate. Harris is reportedly keen for another round, while Trump appears less enthusiastic. The question looms: who stands to gain more from another showdown? With expectations now so low for Trump, even a modest improvement could help him. On the other hand, another performance similar to the first could be potentially fatal for his campaign. 

So will there be a second debate? And if so, can Trump change the narrative, or will Harris deliver another blow to his campaign? 

What Lies Ahead?

While Harris emerged from the debate as the clear winner, there are still challenges ahead. Some undecided voters felt she wasn’t specific enough on policy positions, choosing instead to focus on making Trump implode and outlining her broader vision for the country. However, she did manage to effectively argue against Trump’s suitability for the presidency, a critical move as voters in key states prepare to cast their ballots.

Debates often have a short-lived impact, as seen in Trump’s 2016 first debate against Hillary Clinton, where he was widely perceived to have lost but went on to win the election. Nevertheless, Harris’s strong performance may have come at a crucial moment. The race is far from over, but this debate could mark a pivotal turning point in her campaign’s favour.