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Solution: Three Prisoners Problem – in a nutshell.

April 3, 2019

Solution to Exercise

When the prisoner expressly asked the warden to name one of the OTHER men who will be executed, he is asking the warden not to name him, whether he is to be pardoned or not. So he obtains no new information about his fate when the warden names which one of the other two prisoners will be executed. New information is a requirement for changing the probability that something will happen or not. So his probability that he will be pardoned remains at 1/3. The new information he does have is that the prisoner the warden names will be executed, so the chance that the other prisoner, who was not named, will be pardoned rises to 2/3.

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