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Solution: Portia’s Challenge – in a nutshell.

April 3, 2019

Solution to Exercise

Bassanio should switch to the lead casket. His original choice of the gold casket has a 1 in 3 chance of containing the portrait. The silver and lead caskets combined have a 2 in 3 chance of containing the portrait. That remains the case after Portia opens the silver casket, because she was forced to open that casket given that she knew that the lead casket was the correct choice. So the lead casket has a 2 in 3 chance of being the correct casket. If Portia had no idea which casket contained the portrait, and randomly opened the silver casket, the remaining choices (lead casket and gold casket) would have an equal chance of being the correct casket.

From → Solutions

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